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The Lebanese people should control their emotions and pre-judgments till German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis, United Nations’ Chief Investigator, submits his preliminary report on Oct. 21. Lebanon wants justice in the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri on Feb. 14, but faithful Lebanese fear that politicizing the crime may put the country on the cross roads of instability.
Hariri was not the first high-profile victim of Lebanon’s religious, ethnical, political and regional complexities. Probes never took place in the deaths of Kamal Junmblat, head of the Lebanese left-wing Progressive Socialist Party, Bachir Gemayel, former Lebanon President, Sa’ad Sayyel, member of the Palestine Liberation Organization, Hassan Khaled, the former Sunni Muslim Cleric, Rasheed Karami, former Lebanon Prime Minister, Renie Moawad, former Lebanon President, Elie Hubbeika, former member of the right-wing Christian Lebanese Forces and so on and so on. The list seems to never end.
When the unification between Syria and Egypt took place under Egyptian President Gamal Abdul-Nasser in 1958, the Lebanese were among the first Arabs to cheer in the streets for the idea of Pan-Arabism that Nasser was promoting. On the other hand, some Lebanese, who see themselves as part of Europe or ancient Phoenicia, reacted cautiously and the country was on the edge of civil war.
During that time, there were neither Syrian or Israeli armies nor Palestinian militias to blame. The tensions happened from within the country itself. The United States had to send special forces to calm the situation. The calm did not last forever.
When the 15-year Lebanese Civil War started in 1975, the country divided itself between Christian fascism, Islamic fundamentalism, Secular Pan-Arabism, Lebanese nationalism, Syrian nationalism and support for the Palestinian cause. Syrians have been major players in Lebanon, but so have the Israelis.
During the civil war, there was an implicit understanding between the Syrians and Israelis in running their business in Lebanon. During the Israeli invasion to Lebanon in the summer of 1982, the Syrian army watched Israel’s siege and bombardment of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, with no interference. The Lebanese factions that asked for Syria to interfere in Lebanon in the 70s have been the ones leading fierce campaigns for it to get out in the 90s.
So, why do the U.S., Britain and France care so much for Lebanon now? Well, the rules of the game have changed.
The three powers are pressuring for full normalization with the Israelis as part of a comprehensive peace and not losing control of the world’s largest oil reserves. Lacking long-term vision, Syria joined the US-led coalition on the war against Iraq to liberate Kuwait.
The liberation of Kuwait in 1991 was the bridge that led to the toppling of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in April 2003. It is not a matter of ‘if’, but a matter of ‘when’ Syria and Lebanon will be next? Yesterday’s friends are today’s enemies. In the two months following Hussein’s removal, the U.S. Congress passed the Syria Accountability Act. In recent developments, the Financial Times of London on Oct. 9 reported that the U.S. is seeking a new Syrian leader
London-based independent Arab daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi Chief Editor Abdul-Bari Atwan and former head of the Egyptian Intelligence Agency Mohammad Hasanein Haykal have pointed out in the fall of 1990 that getting Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait by bringing western armies into Arabia will be the first step toward reshaping the region.
The U.S. administration has been increasing pressure on Syria. Syria finds itself today under mounting international pressure mainly by the US and Britain, and not surprisingly France too. France has realized that leaving Iraq to the Americans and British will ensure that it may lose its remaining influence and interests in the region. In addition, warmth has been characterizing American-French relations in recent months in regard to Iran’s nuclear file.
Many Lebanese realize that their country may be part of new dramatic changes in the historic Levant or Fertile Crescent, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine. The road to Jerusalem starts from the gates of Baghdad. Beirut and Damascus are on that road.
“Coping with Crumbling States; A Western and Israeli Balance of Power Strategy for the Levant” is an exclusive report that was published in 1996 by Richard Perle, Robert J. Loewenberg and David Wurmser. Part of the report said, “The United States must support moves to challenge Syria’s position in Lebanon.”
Pro-Syria Hizbullah’s missiles along Lebanon’s southern borders remain a concern for Israel. With mounting European and American pressure on Iran due to its nuclear ambitions, Hizbullah can act as a counter-force for any threat by Israel on Iran. Iran has learned this lesson when Israeli jets attacked Iraq’s nuclear plant in 1981.
Syria’s regime and its Lebanese allies have been the dominant power in Lebanon for three decades. Such dominance created a police state filled with corruption. Backed by Syria, Lebanese President Emile Lahoud is serving a second term following pressure from Syria and in spite of rejection by most Lebanese.
Hariri expressed dissatisfaction with Lahoud’s second term in office and Syria’s continuous interference in Lebanese politics. Many Lebanese think that Syria was behind his killing.
On the other hand, many Lebanese think that only Israel can benefit from such killing regardless of who committed it. Hariri’s assassination provoked mass pro and anti-Syrian demonstrations in Beirut, which forced Syria to withdraw its military and intelligence from Lebanon in April. This was followed by General Parliamentary Elections that took place for the first time in thirty years without Syrian or any foreign interference.
The Lebanese elected 128 members of parliament representing Lebanon’s Muslim, Christian and Druze communities. The United Nations appointed German prosecutor Deblis Mehlis to head an investigation team in Hariri’s killing by issuing UN Resolution 1595.
Yet, the series of assassinations and assassination attempts did not stop following the killing of Hariri. Lebanon has been experiencing a series of explosions targeting mainly Christian-dominated areas. The Hariri case is so complicated that Mehlis is thinking about extending his investigation to Dec. 15. Observers wonder how much longer the Lebanese can take to find the truth and to put an end to the series of criminal actions that threaten the stability of the country?
Such thoughts bring black memories of the 15-year civil war. There is a strong belief in Lebanese and Arab circles that hidden forces have an interest in creating chaos in Lebanon. This may be Syria. This may be Israel. Or this may be selfish Lebanese citizens who have put their self-interests above national interests as long as they profit individually?
During the UN inquiry last month, Mehlis met with Lebanese and Syrian security officials. Lebanese security authorities issued arrest orders against four pro-Syria former security chiefs. This has sparked more turmoil in Lebanon for President Lahoud to resign. Lahoud rejected such calls to step down and insisted to serve his term in office which ends in 2007. He insisted that he did not have to do anything with the killing of Hariri and offered all possible assistance to find the killers and hang them. Later, sources revealed that the Syrian defector who had testified to the UN probe about the four former security chiefs had fabricated his story.
Lebanese Arab daily Assafir reported that Mehlis’s investigation has dismissed earlier reports that a suicide bomber performed the assassination. The investigation has concluded that the videotape of an Islamist claiming responsibility for Hariri’s killing was made up by the true killers to cover up their crime. Accordingly, the Lebanese people should not make themselves the victims of their own speculations yet.
Such conclusions should cool the temper of the Lebanese rather than sending accusations right and left that have been provoking unnecessary hatred within the Lebanese-Syrian family. If the UN investigation proves that Syria is involved in the Hariri’s killing, the Lebanese should separate Syria’s regime from its people. If the UN investigation proves that Israel is involved, how will Lebanon and the Arab world react? What would stop Israel from its continuous denial to UN resolutions? If the UN proves that neither Syria nor Israel is involved, and finds only Lebanese elements are involved, how will the Lebanese people react? The pressure on Syria will intensify regardless of the outcome of the Mehlis investigation.
Syria may no longer have apparent intelligence and military presence in Lebanon, but Lebanon may have to deal with another type of pressure in regards to the implementation of UN Resolution 1559. The resolution says that the Lebanese government should disarm all military groups with the exception of the formal Lebanese army. This will involve the Hizbullah and Palestinian factions. The questions remain, how will Hizbullah and Palestinian factions react to this? And what kind of future awaits the Syrian, Lebanese and the Arab people?
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© Copyright World Internet News 2006-07
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