Brazilian Elections Setback for Labor Conservatism

Media Critiques
Brazilian Elections Setback for Labor Conservatism
By Fred Schiff
Oct 27, 2008, 16:01

The moderate Party of the Democrat Movement in Brazil is back in the limelight after winning mayoral elections in 1,203 or 21.7 percent of the 5,532 cities nation-wide, according to the Folha de São Paulo.

Three big parties managed to beat out six medium-sized parties and more than a dozen smaller ones to take control of almost half the cities in Brazil in local elections in October.

The PMDB blossomed in 1985 to oppose the 21-year military dictatorship. PMDB mayors are now in charge of a string of state capitol cities, including Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and Salvador, ranked by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística as second, third and fifth, respectively, in regional influence.

For the Workers Party of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, who is hugely popular, the local elections were a setback. Lula has presided over six years of economic growth. Pursuing big-business friendly “neo-liberal” policies of low inflation and easy credit, he spread the wealth for the first time to poor people, the "povo," as the majority are called here. His labor conservatism apparently produced an afterglow comfortable enough that most voters chose more of the same divided government. Basically, the stand-pat elections returned 67 percent of incumbents, according to the National Confederation of Cities. In the state capitols, which are uniformly the largest cities in each state, the CMN said 19 out of 20 incumbent mayors won re-election.

In the first round on Oct. 5, more than half of the big-city mayors went into second-round run-offs because neither of the two leading candidates won a majority. The second Oct. 26 round focused the spotlight on the party prospects of moderates (PMDB), labor (PT) and social democrats (PSDB).

The Social Democratic Party of Brazil – the left-oriented party of the former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso – saw the worst losses. The number of people in cities with PSDB mayors dropped to a third of its 2004 total. In the so-called “Group of 79” – 26 capitols plus all cities with 200,000 voters or more – the PSDB fell to third place, retaining 13 mayors in 2008.

Meanwhile, the PT installed 21 mayors and PMDB took 17 in the 59 largest cities. Both parties did about the same or slightly better than in 2000 and 2004. Looking at the record for the entire period since 1985, labor grew from obscurity as the moderates fell from representing a unified pro-democracy consensus.

As for the prospect of the upcoming 2010 presidential race, the social democrats (PSDB) under Cardoso (1995-2002) get credit for widening the democratic opening with more transparency. Indeed because of the shifting party alliances, the PSDB governor of the State of São Paulo, José Serra, is expected to be the leading candidate to succeed Lula, according to the Folha in São Paulo and A Tarde in Salvador.

“The PSDB is the natural ally of the PT because they both appeal to the working class,” said Nelson Cerqueira, former editor-in-chief of the now defunct Diario das Noticias, which circulated in 20 cities nationwide. Desertions from the labor party and the example of European-style social democracy generated the PSDB.

Cerqueira said that “Lula and Serra together with Cardoso were the founders of the Workers Party.”

Compared to U.S. elections with two parties and widespread voter apathy, Brazilian-style democratic participation is a free for all. Car caravans with blaring campaign songs and incessant jingles cruise the streets creating traffic jams as they go. Flag-waving street marchers show up in every neighborhood. Government-mandated political advertising airs on public airwaves via radio and television a couple of hours every day. Paid party workers, mostly young people wearing the same color T-shirts and outfits of their candidate, stand all day with handheld banners along major streets.

In an “off year” election, turnout was 83 percent compared to under 35 percent typical in the U.S. The difference is that campaigns here are shorter and more intense. Voting takes place on Sunday when most people are off work, not on workday Tuesdays.

Perhaps most importantly, voting is an obligation, not a “privilege” periodically denied by purging voter registration lists, a conscious policy of “clean government Progressives” and white-majority conservatives since the 1880s and 1890s, when Jim Crow legal impediments reduced U.S. turnout from above 80 percent – facts long established by sociologists and political scientists. Non-voters in Brazil are fined.

For the record, Brazil, with 192 million people is the fifth largest country in the world in population and territory. It ranks 10th in gross domestic product just behind Italy and in front of Canada – both G7 countries, supposedly the most industrialized and wealthy – according to the latest figures from Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development for 2005 and 2006.

Brazil has a system of strong mayors and weak city councils. But senior campaign managers said the cities themselves are financially weak. Like U.S. cities but more so, Brazilian cities depend on large state and federal transfer payments. In Salvador with 3.6 million inhabitants and 1.7 million voters, for example, the local government generates only about half the revenues expended each year, according to local officials. Carrying out local campaign promises depends especially on the largesse of higher-level politicians. So, political alliances are not only horizontal but must also be vertical.

At the national level, Lula’s PT party depends on an alliance with PMDB, the largest block of senators and federal deputies. Not to offend his coalition partners, Lula for the most part stayed out of direct campaigning in the local elections, according to press reports. The favor was not reciprocated as PMDB and PSDB actively made deals with other parties.

What happened is revealing in São Paulo and Salvador.

São Paulo is the seventh largest concentration of people in the world with more than 20 million people, according to U.N. calculations. The first round was close – 35 percent for the Democratic Party compared to 32 percent for the Workers´ Party. The second-round vote was 61 percent versus 41 percent – Gilberto Kassab beating Marta Suplicy by a wide margin. The difference comes almost completely from PSDB supporters as 22 percent who voted for third-place finisher Geraldo Alckmin switched sides.

The Democratic Party is the fourth party. It maintains the legacy of the Popular Front Party that evolved out of the military-backed Arena party. The Democrats are really among the mid-sized parties, winning only one capital, though São Paulo is what demographers call Brazil´s “primate city.”

In Salvador, similarly the first-round finalists were almost equal with 30 and 31 percent in the first round. PMDB candidate João Henrique Carneiro, however, surged ahead to gain 58 percent in the second round, again beating Workers Party candidate Walter Pinheiro, who ended up with 42 percent of the vote. Different parties traded favors, but again the same game – number one and three combined against the PT. The third-place conservative Democratic Party candidate threw his 26.6 percent in with the PMDB. Antônio Carlos Magalhães III, his deceased father and grandfather represent a political dynasty that dominated Salvador during the military dictatorship and since. The PT managed only to align with three leftist parties and a weak PSDB.

Newly elected Mayor Carneiro said he expects to rely more on his own PMDB federal deputies and PMDB federal ministers in the coalition executive for pass-through transfer payments than on the PT governor, Jaques Walter.

Besides shifting party alignments, politicians often switch parties, said Cerqueira. Galvanizing a congressional majority from so many parties and factions means that Brazilian democracy has to be more flexible and democratic than under a two-party system, he said.

“Lula is more to the left than any previous Brazilian presidents,” Cerqueira said.

He could have included Cardoso as well. As for Serra continuing the left-leaning alternation between the PSDB and PT at the national level Cerqueira said that “any Brazilian president has to move to the center. Otherwise he wouldn’t able to govern.”